Global Warming News

On Friday, April 6, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global body charged with assessing the scientific record on global warming, is expected to issue the second volume of its Fourth Assessment Report on global warming.  Prepared and reviewed by more than 2,500 of the world’s most respected scientists, the consensus IPCC report will provide a comprehensive assessment of the peer-reviewed research on global warming.

This volume of the report, entitled “Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,” will examine the actual and predicted impacts of global warming on human health, the environment, and wildlife.  This memo provides a brief overview of what to expect from the April 6 report, as well as background on the IPCC.

Key Findings: Pollution Increasing Drought, Food and Water Shortages, Harm to Wildlife 

Based on past IPCC reports and the science published in the five years since the last IPCC impacts report, this report is expected to conclude that human-caused global warming is already increasing drought and heat waves, lessening water availability, and damaging wildlife habitat.  Many of these impacts are expected to worsen as temperatures rise in the coming century. 

In addition to global observations and predictions, the report will analyze the regional impacts of global warming.  Previous reports have predicted declining crop yields in many regions, water shortages for large portions of the world’s population, including those in the Western U.S., increased flooding due to sea-level rise, and more frequent intense precipitation events.

Specifically, the report will address the following:

• How is global warming already affecting ecosystems, economies, and human health worldwide?  In North America?
• To what extent is human-caused global warming pollution responsible for these changes?
• How will global warming affect water resources, food production, coastal developments, industry, immigration patterns, and biodiversity in the future? 
• How certain are scientists of each of these predictions?
• What are the options for adapting to changes caused by global warming?

IPCC Process and Background

The IPCC was established by the United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988 with a mandate to assess the state of knowledge on global warming on a “comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis” and to generate documents that reflects a consensus among those involved.[1]  In 1990, 1995, and 2001, the IPCC issued its prior assessments. 

The Assessment Report consists of three working groups — each focused on a different aspect of global warming — plus a final synthesis document. Over the course of 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report will be rolled out in four parts as follows:

• Working Group I: The Scientific Basis was released on February 2 and concluded that global warming is “unequivocal.”  Projections for future temperature increase ranged from 2 to more than 11 degrees Fahrenheit, depending on our future emissions of global warming pollutants.[2]     
• Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability will be released on April 6.
• Working Group III: Mitigation is slated for release on May 4.
• Final Synthesis Report is scheduled for release on November 16.

More than 2500 experts from 130 countries contributed to the Fourth Assessment Report, creating a truly comprehensive review of the peer-reviewed research on global warming.[3]  Each IPCC report is subject to two rounds of review, first by experts in the appropriate field and then by experts and governments.[4]  Finally, representatives of every country involved in the report meet in the days before the report is released to approve each line of the summary for policymakers.  For the impacts report, representatives from over 100 countries will meet in Brussels, Belgium from April 2 to April 5 to carry out the line-by-line approval process. 

On April 10, IPCC authors and editors will hold regional press briefings on the localized impacts of global warming.  For North America, that briefing location and contact information will be available the week before the release at http://www.ipcc.ch/regional_press_briefings.htm.

Major Reductions in Global Warming Pollution Needed

Science is clear about what we need to do to avoid the worst consequences of global warming: stabilize worldwide emissions of the pollutants that cause global warming by the end of the decade and reduce them by more than half by mid-century. To do its fair share, the United States should stabilize its global warming emissions at or below today’s levels by the end of this decade and reduce emissions by at least 15-20% by 2020 and by at least 80% by 2050. The United States can achieve these reductions using energy efficiency and renewable energy and in doing so break our reliance on fossil fuels, enhance our long-term economic and national security, and once again lead the world as a positive force for change.

Two bills in Congress this year would achieve those science-based reductions.  Representative Waxman’s Safe Climate Act and Senators Sanders and Boxer’s Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act would both reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80% by 2050.

In Illinois, Governor Blagojevich has set a goal of reducing our emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and to 60% below 1990 levels by 2050 and has convened a task force to create a plan for meeting these goals.   Moreover, the Illinois Global Warming Response Act (S.B. 1187 and H.B. 1874) would set a mandatory cap at 1990 levels by 2020.